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Louisiana Downs analysis - Thursday October 16, 2008

by Jarrod Horak on October 15th, 2008

Louisiana Downs analysis – Thursday, October 16, 2008

by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

Overall Top 3 selections performance (June 26th thru Oct. 12th)

623 races (124 top pick wins, 162 second pick wins, 97 third pick wins)

SUNDAY RECAP

Main track played fair on Sunday, and off the pace types were preferred on the turf (rail at 20 feet).

Sunday started in crazy fashion with Cato crashing the opener at $367.20 under Pedro Monterrey.

Eagle Two Hundred, my Sunday best bet, had a rough journey in the grassy 5th. He had nowhere to go turning for home and continued to race in traffic throughout the lane. He ended up a close 5th, and he was placed 4th via DQ.

PVal booted home a pair on Sunday, and his four wins last week included career victory number 4,000 on Thursday. Billy Patin rode two turf winners on the card.

Thursday-Friday-Saturday marks the end of the 2008 LA Downs race meet. We have a Pick 6 (races 6-11) carryover of $2,515.

LAD 1 (Clm-5k, 3up, 8.5f) #1 AIRZONE (10-1) is fresh off three straight wins at Assinboia Downs, and he earned above par BSF’s in each of those victories. He has won here before, and today’s pilot Laviolette rode him to a place finish in May. #1 Go Legs Go (8-5) finished a solid 2nd from an outer post versus similar local routers last time. He lands a better post today for leading owner Jan Haynes and leading trainer Jorge Lara, and Jose Riquelme got to know him last time. #8 Bobo Is Loose (9-5) is 4-5 over the local main at the current meet, and new trainer Lonnie Briley returns him to the $5k level. Leblanc rides him well, but note that he has lost 3 of his last 4 and might be over the top.

LAD 2 (Clm-15/3L, f&m 3up, 7f) #4 DREAMZY (4-1) keeps earning improved speed ratings without winning, and maybe she finally gets over the 3L hump today. Her last at 6f was her best yet, and she shows a solid local drill since that Sept. 11th place finish. Donnie Meche strings along, and this is her best post draw at the current stand. #5 Marie’s Plan (7-2) has been part of the exacta in 5 straight, and new trainer Jerry Cart is 40% first off the claim. Riquelme is 1-2 with this outfit, and she projects a prominent throughout trip 2nd off a layoff. #2 Freedom Eagle (15-1) was a troubled 8th from post 10 in a local turf sprint last time. Clifford Dodson is a profitable 21% turf/dirt, and this one is 1-5 on the main track.

LAD 3 (Mcl-30k, LA-bred 2yo fil, 6f) #5 BROKEN LINK (3-1) drops in to a maiden claimer for the first time for the profitable Amanda Crandall/Brent Kennedy team. She has faced the likes of multiple winners Run Don’t Stroll, Enjoy the Score, and Skirting Disaster, and she has hit the board in 3 of 5 starts so far. She sports a best of 19 bullet for this. #12 Leeola (5-1) finished a nice 2nd in her local bow on Aug. 29th, and DQ’d show finisher Fancy Brianna came back to graduated by 13 lengths in a Mcl-15k on the Super Derby undercard. #1 Lady Mojo (8-1) drops back in for a tag, and she was only a length behind my top in a MSW event on Aug. 16th. She was hung out to dry in post 11 at 7f last time. Early/pressing type cuts back in distance and lands the rail for the 19% Gonzalez/Barger team, and she might be the one to catch today.

LAD 4 (OC-16/1x, 3up, 1mile-70yds) #5 TRACK RECORD (5-2) finished 3rd behind a couple of decent runners at 6f last time (Forestry Gold-Port Captain). Versatile sort handles a route of ground, and trainer Ellen Williams is 3-10 sprint/route and 4-18 with this type of short layoff runner. #2 Southern Style (5-1) threw in a clunker as the fav in a local sprint last time. Troy Young is 24% sprint/route, and he could go much better 3rd race back for a 28% jockey/trainer team. #6 Smilin’ Del (6-1) confidently jumps into an optional claiming race for leading trainer Jorge Lara following a solid place finish in a $10k route off a layoff. He likes this oval, and barn $$ rider L.Meche rides him well.

LAD 5 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 8.5f) #10 ZUPPARDO’S FROST (6-1) goes turf/dirt and dives down to the $5k level. She was a distant 3rd for $20k in a local 7f race on Aug. 24th, and she was an even 3rd behind subsequent winner Stormey Wonder for $10k earlier in the meet. Kerwin Clark hops aboard, and he’s 1-2 with trainer Scott Tubbs here. #9 Mighty N Grand (7-2) earned an above par 48 BSF in clear place finish at 7f last time. Barn 0-13 sprint/route, and Jacinto/J.Knight are 2-8 together at the current stand. She owns the 6th best Tomlinson distance rating (279). #11 Bien Wild (9-2) drops to the bottom level for the first time, and Gonzalez/Savoie are a profitable 27% together overall. She has been part of the trifecta in 3 of 6 local starts.

LAD 6 (Clm-5/3L, LA-bred 3up, 6.5f) #1 AMAN AMONG MEN (8-1) has claiming price cut in half after faltering in a local route last time. Floyd Pitzer is 3-8 route/sprint, and Donnie Meche hops aboard the early/pressing rail-sitter. #10 Buddy And Ben (3-1) was a solid 2nd as the 7-2 fav in a quickly run race versus similar local sprinters on Sept. 21st. Jacinto/Sam David Jr. 26% together here. #11 Out Of Autumn (8-1) is an Evangeline shipper for Shawn David, who is 26% with this type of layoff runner. Early/pressing type removes the hood for this.

LAD 7 (Clm-15/3L, 3up, 8T) #3 UNBRIDLED SKY (5-2) returns to a preferred turf route and reunites with winning pilot John Jacinto. His BSF’s are on par with what it takes to win at this level, so the drop seems right. #4 Mad and Royal (2-1) has won his last two local turf races from off the pace. Melancon/Breaux are 5-15 together here. #10 Pure Rock (7-2) finished an even 4th at 7.5f last time. He was a good 2nd at this flat mile turf distance on Aug. 15th, and he’ll be grinding away late for PVal/Morris Nicks.

LAD 8 (Clm-5k, 3up, 7f) #12 FAIRMONT (7-5) earned a quality 82 BSF in a starter allowance place finish here last time, and he was flattered when winner Hello Ladies came back to win another starter allowance sprint on Sunday. He romped by 5-lengths at this course, distance, and level on July 18th, and anything approaching his last would be more than enough to get the job done for leading trainer Jorge Lara. He sports a best of 17 local 3f blowout bullet for this. #7 Seventy Two Reno (6-1) was 3rd, beaten a length at 6f here last time. His last win was a 5.25 length tally at this distance on Aug. 21st. Robert Husak is a profitable claiming dirt sprint trainer, and Carlos Gonzalez hops aboard. #11 Hemi Power (3-1) exits a good looking 3-length 6.5f tally off a layoff, and show finisher Old Chunk of Coal came back to win his next start here. He likes this distance and owns an all or nothing local record. Dangerous if able to run two alike.

LAD 9 (Clm-5k, f&m 3up, 1mile-70yds) #9 KISS THE SUN (7-2) has been my top pick in her last two, a win at this distance on Sept. 7th and a place finish at 6f last time. Jorge Lara is 20% sprint/route, and barn $$ rider L.Meche strings along. The leading owner/trainer have a string of live runners on tap today. #8 Piney Rock (6-1) drops in class and switches surfaces for PVal/Morris Nicks. Late running rebound candidate is a 2-time course and distance winner. #10 Cold and Windswept (3-1) gets away from red hot 6 and 5-time meet winners Farasino and Illuminique. She drops to rock bottom and should run a quality off the pace race, but note that she shows no wins in 2007-08.

LAD 10 (OC-16/1x, f&m 3up, 5T) #3 ISLAND CLUB (10-1) has fired in all six dirt sprint starts, including three straight wins. She owns fine early/pressing speed for the profitable Amanda Crandall/Brent Kennedy team, and she is out of 3-8 debut turf sire Exciting Story. #11 Devilish Kris (3-1) was 2nd to sharp turf sprinter Serrano in a similar spot on Aug. 31st. Jacinto hops aboard the versatile miss. #1 Maggie’s Agenda (5-1) steps up off a sharp prominent throughout 3.75 length 2L tally at this course/distance on Oct. 2nd. Improving miss has won 2 straight for profitable trainer Shane Wilson.

LAD 11 (Mcl-15k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 7f) #8 JEREMANTHA (7-2) earned a decent 50 BSF in distant 4th place finish MSW bow, and place finisher Shoppin Shirley came back to score. Joe Duhon is 22% with 2nd timers, and Jacinto hops aboard. #11 Sexy Walk (3-1) was my top on the turf last time, and she was spanked by fav St. Tribute. Her best effort was a length defeat at this course/distance on Aug. 23rd. Another PVal/Morris Nicks contender. #6 Karens Magic Shoes (8-1) drops back in for a tag and adds blinkers. She rallied for the show in her maiden claiming bow, and she was up the track behind Angel in Charge last time, and that one came back to score again.

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