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Louisiana Downs analysis - Sunday, October 5, 2008

by Jarrod Horak on October 4th, 2008

Louisiana Downs analysis – Sunday, October 5, 2008

by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

Nice ride by apprentice and September rider of the month Dustin Dugas aboard Lil Miss Pynes in Saturday’s 2nd. She was off a beat slow, but her jockey stayed patient, and she made a steady wide advance and won nicely as my bet down 2-1 top. That was his 4th win for trainer Ray Shumake recently. Dugas came right back to nail the 3rd race for his other main client, Charles Hukill.

A pair of wins for leading trainer Jorge Lara on Saturday. Torres and Lonnie Meche both booted home a pair.

LAD 1 (MSW, 2yo, 6f) #7 BATESVILLE (9-2) set the pace and weakened in his turf sprint bow, and place finisher Ghost Ruler came back to roll by almost 10 lengths on Sept. 27th. He stalked and finished 3rd of 12 in a 5f main track sprint last time, and he ran into decent sort Expect A Flyer that day. I like the rider upgrade to Don Simington. #9 Valid Texan (6-1) sports a trio of local bullets for the 21% Verenzuela/Bob Young team, and barn is 19% with FTS. #5 Stormy M.L.T. (3-1) also shows three local bullets, and George Northrop Jr. is 20% FTS. Expect aggressive handling under PVal. #1 My Boy Coy (4-1) sports a couple of Evangeline bullet works, and Cody Autrey is 21% with firsters. Must overcome rail post, which can be intimidating for a young juvenile.

LAD 2 (MSW, 3-4-5yo, 5T) #8 FIVE FOOT MIKE (9-5) is out of 15% 1st grass sire Boundary, and turf wining dam has thrown a couple of turf winners as well. Sam Breaux is 28% 2nd off a layoff and 22% 1st turf. He has landed the place in 2 of 3 dirt sprint starts, and two of his races were originally scheduled for turf. #2 More Than Tactics (8-5) is out of 16% 1st turf sire More Than Ready, and he sports a pair of bullets for this. Morris Nicks is 25% with this type of layoff runner and 30% in turf sprints. PVal hops aboard the 2nd timer, who dueled and weakened to 5th of 10 in his long ago Churchill bow. #4 Huana Creek (15-1) earned his best two BSF’s in both of his local turf sprint tries. I like the rider upgrade to Carlos Gonzalez.

LAD 3 (Clm-5k, 3up, 5.5f) #3 JANIES MONEY (6-1) has claiming price cut in half, and I like aggressive pilot Carlos Gonzalez climbing aboard the early/pressing type. His speed ratings are on the rise, and he can compete here with another forward move. #1 Knock First (3-1) miss 2nd by a head in a local 10/2L race at this distance here on Sept. 6th, his first start versus winners. Jacinto sticks with the early/pressing rail-sitter. #8 Double Your Bid (9-2) has been part of trifecta in last five starts, including rallying show finish at this distance in February. Sam David Jr. trainee needs pace help to set up his late charge.

LAD 4 (Clm-15k, 3up, 5T) #10 ANTE GO GO (20-1) exits a sharp prominent throughout score in a 4.5f 2L claimer at Evangeline, and he has been in fine form since switching to the Sam Breaux barn in May. Uping the Ante is a 17% 1st grass sire, and dam has tossed a trio of turf winners. Riquelme booted her home last time, and she looms a pace factor at the very least on the surface switch. #1 Whiskey Bound (2-1) was necked in her career turf sprint bow last year, and with 16% turf sire Boundary, it is not surprising that she took to the turf right away. She shows five trifecta finishes in 8 dirt sprint starts since, and she drops in class and switches surfaces today. I like the rider switch to Simington, who is 31% with Allen Milligan here. #3 Stormy Date (5-2) is out of 11% first grass sire Magic Cat, and Bret Calhoun is 19% with horses trying turf for the initial time. He finished a fine 2nd behind Cape Bird in his first start for a tag on the Super Derby undercard, and Lonnie Meche got to know him that day.

LAD 5 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 6.5f) #4 DUDNEY ROAD (5-1) experienced an awkward start in his long ago MSW bow at Delta Downs. William Deakins is 3-9 with new additions to his barn, and 2-7 in the maiden claiming ranks. She adds lasix and sports a local 3f bullet for this. Dugas hops aboard, and he won a pair here yesterday. #2 Miss Kettle Woman (3-1) ran a much improved race when missing by a head here last time, and she earned the best last race BSF for that effort. Dupuis sticks, and Shumake is having a rock solid meet. This slightly shorter distance does not do her any favors. #11 Majestic Vision (4-1) has finished 4th and 2nd in a pair of 7 furlong 14-horse fields in her improved last pair since moving to the Ricky Bourque barn. Her newfound early/pressing speed can be dangerous in this spot.

LAD 6 (Mcl-30k, 3-4-5yo, 8T) #8 AWESOME EXPECTATON (6-1) receives a significant turf rider upgrade to D.Meche, and he has finished 3rd in both of his turf outings versus open maiden claimers. He fell far back last time, but that was because Lloyd’s Choice opened up a huge lead through fast fractions. A stalk and pounce trip behind reasonable fractions is anticipated today. #10 Mane Man (5-2) has been the beaten fav in all three of his turf starts, but he has run well each time. He earned a quality speed rating in latest place finish, and the aforementioned show finisher Lloyd’s Choice came back to graduate against my top on Sept. 18th. #2 Brahm’s Dynasty (9-2) has been on my radar screen since his solid 4th place turf bow on June 1st. He has disappointed in four starts since, but he did hit the board the only time today’s rider Dugas rode him. #3 Y’s Beau (2-1) drops back into a maiden claimer for Dallas Keen, and L.Meche is 0-5 with this barn here. Note that he frequently finds trouble, especially at the start.

LAD 7 (Clm-10k, 3up, 1mile-70yds) #4 T KETTLE (7-2) has improved smartly in last pair. He earned a quality speed rating in 7f maiden breaker on Aug. 31st, than came back to finish a close-up 2nd in first start versus winners on Sept. 19th. Dugas/Shumake are 4-11 together here, and they teamed up with first route winner Lil Miss Pynes yesterday. Barn shows a nice profit 1st route as well. #8 Way Too Saucy (5-2) exits a place finish in the 3L ranks, and he is definitely a player as he drops back into a proper 2L spot today. He owns fine tactical speed. #5 Reuben Prospect (5-1) regressed a bit off last time following a career top speed rating on Aug. 7th, and today’s pilot Jacinto rode him to that good close-up show finish.

LAD 8 (Clm-15k, f&m 3up, 8T) #6 DUCHESS OF NISTEL (7-2) has won 2 straight and 3 of 4. She is 2-2 on the turf and wheels back quickly. Might not look back under Carlos Gonzlaez for profitable turf trainer Mike Burgess. #8 Baycation (12-1) is 0-5 on the turf, but she was nabbed out of her last by Jerry Cart, and he’s 42% first off the claim. Barn $$ rider Don Simington climbs aboard. #11 New Morning (5-1) will be rallying late. #4 My Elle Prado (2-1) is typically in the hunt but has gone winless in 2007-2008.

LAD 9 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo, 5f) #4 SENOR ROMEO (9-2) makes 2nd start at this bottom level, and he figures to flash speed at this abbreviated distance. Rosier/Tim Ice teamed up for a longshot winner recently. #10 Snuck N Cat (9-5) makes his 4th barn change and figures to flash speed under PVal. He drops to the bottom rung in first start since July 18th. #3 Stormin Skip (5-1) ran a nice race here two back from post 12. Torres strings along as he tries to rebound off a well-beaten 6th.

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