Thoroughbred Fever - Horse Racing News

It’s Kentucky Derby time!

by Jarrod Horak on May 2nd, 2008

The 2008 Kentucky Derby has finally arrived, and the electrifying Big Brown figures to go off as the post time favorite. The Dutrow trainee has been sensational in three facile victories to kick off his career. He drew post 20 and will probably try similar aggressive early tactics which lead to his Florida Derby triumph. If the talented three-year-old cannot get the job done because of a lack of seasoning, then Colonel John looms the logical choice.

The West Coast synthetic specialist has always been on my radar screen, but I especially perked up following his visually impressive Santa Anita Derby triumph. The only question remaining is his ability to handle conventional dirt, and he alleviated many concerns with a good looking Churchill drill. He has all of the tools to win the Derby and is my strong top choice.

Todd Pletcher has come into the Derby with a strong hand previously only to fall flat, but with a couple of longshot chances this year, the pressure is off and he might surprise. Monba has always been well regarded, and he finally started living up to his potential with a Blue Grass tally. That strange Polytrack victory hardly translates into Derby contention, but he has won at Churchill in the past and deserves respect on raw talent, pedigree and connections. Stablemate Cowboy Cal sports the look of a turf/synthetic specialist.

Pyro was on his way to derby favoritism, but a funny thing happened along the way…Polytrack! The dreaded synthetic surface jumped up and bit him in the Blue Grass, and it remains to be seen if he can bounce back on preferred conventional dirt.

Eight Belles is a filly taking on the gents. My first Derby experience was watching Genuine Risk stroll past the boys in the 1980 Derby, so I certainly think it can be done. The Larry Jones miss has talent and is a physical specimen, but she has never raced past eight and one half furlongs and clearly gets the acid test.

Court Vision might be coming to a race. He has finished third in both of his 2008 starts, and he has the seasoning and route foundation to do some damage on the first Saturday in May. I like the looks of his local work in blinkers, and Bill Mott might have something going here.

Adriano could not have been more impressive in the Lane’s End, but that was a Polytrack event six weeks ago. I have always liked his Maryland based trainer Graham Motion, and Edgar Prado had options but stuck with this strong finisher. He is my sneaky Derby longshot.

Gayego, Smooth Air, Visionaire and Z Fortune all have the ability to make some Derby noise, but this race starts and ends with Colonel John, and if he handles the dirt track…forget about it!

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POSTED IN: Handicapping, Horses, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown